Banking health and the ‘K Curve’
dynamics
Depositors in Lakshmi
Vilas Bank Limited
(LVB) recently got bailed out by the RBI. The non- banking financial
companies, or NBFCs are also in trouble.
More on news:
●
The implications of this
financial turmoil will reflect on the price
performance of individual banks.
●
Price action of banks in the
market can provide useful insights about the financial system dynamics that
will change in the coming years.
‘Price to Book Value’ ratio
(P/BV)
●
The key metric for financial
companies is the ‘Price to Book Value’ ratio
(P/BV).
●
The P/BV reflects on two
critical features:
ü Adequacy of current capital and
ü Runway available to the entity for profitable growth
●
Meaning of the values associated:
ü
A P/BV ratio above 1 indicates
that the market believes that the company can grow and generate Return on
Equity (RoE) above the hurdle rate that investors expect.
■
The faster it can grow above the
hurdle rate, the greater the P/B multiple (above 1).
ü A P/BV below 1, indicates that the market either does not believe the bank has
recognised all its bad loans or has the business model to deliver returns above
the hurdle rate.
■
It may be because the bank does
not have a good deposit franchise, has bad cost discipline or a broken lending model.
●
There are banks that have a
P/BV above 4 while some others are
at much below 1, even at 0.25. Some NBFCs have values in excess of 7.
Alpha banks
●
Private sector banks: Major banks have
always had their P/BV above 3 on a consistent
basis.
ü Capital is available in plenty for these banks and the market is
optimistic that these banks will generate attractive RoE.
ü
Therefore, they have
disproportionate incremental market share on both assets and liabilities.
●
Banks having P/BV of above 1.5: These
banks have access to sufficient capital.
Both the above sets of banks are called Alpha banks. They would form one arm of the K, having adequate
access to capital and the intrinsic ability to grow market share. The only
constraint for these banks would be their ability to grow their liability
franchise as changes in market share on deposits are much slower than changes
on the asset side.
Private sector banks having a
P/BV of 1 or below:
●
Business model issue: The new generation banks amongst these have to demonstrate consistent growth and stability
on the liability side to earn their stripes for a higher P/BV again.
●
The market perceives issues with their lending practices and
thereby, asset quality. That is the reason their P/BV is at very low levels.
●
They need to transform
themselves by upgrading technology, add
skilled manpower and improve management quality and governance.
Way forward
●
For public banks
ü Their current governance
model depresses their P/BV.
ü These banks should run in a professional manner with an ability to
decide their own destiny.
ü Along with the government move to consolidate PSU banks into few large
banks, these banks must
have differing value propositions to
offer to the market.
ü Clear level playing field
amongst all banks: Government should move towards
transparent and fair compensation for services rendered to various
State-sponsored programmes to all players.
ü
PSU banks should
be free to adopt human
resource practices to on-board lateral
talent to fill in skill set gaps and adapt to the new
digital world.
●
More Alpha banks needed: The Alpha banks
widen the K Curve and squeeze out the weak banks. However, there is clearly
more room for banks to migrate into the Alpha banks set.
ü For NBFCs, there
is no clear path. The more valued
NBFCs can become
part of the Alpha banks in
the long term.
Amalgamation of Lakshmi Vilas Bank with DBS Bank India
Limited
The Union Cabinet, chaired by the Prime Minister has given its
approval to the Scheme of Amalgamation of Lakshmi Vilas Bank Limited (LVB) with
DBS Bank India Limited (DBIL).
Benefits of amalgamation:
●
There will be no further
restrictions on the depositors regarding withdrawal of their deposits.
●
It is in line with
the Government's commitment to a clean
banking system while protecting the
interests of depositors and the public as well as the financial system.
Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) |
●
It is a framework under which banks with weak financial
metrics are put under watch by the RBI. ●
Applicable: The PCA framework is applicable only to commercial banks
and not to co-operative banks and non-banking financial
companies (NBFCs). ○
It may be noted that of the
21 state-run banks, 11 are under the
PCA framework. ●
It aims to check the problem of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) in the
Indian banking sector. ●
Essentially PCA helps RBI monitor key performance
indicators of banks, and taking corrective measures, to restore the financial
health of a bank. ●
The PCA framework deems banks
as risky if they slip some trigger
points - capital to risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR), net NPA,
Return on Assets (RoA) and Tier 1 Leverage ratio. ●
It has three risk threshold levels (1 being the lowest and 3 the highest)
based on where a bank stands on these ratios. Measures under PCA ●
Depending on the threshold
levels, the RBI can place restrictions
on dividend distribution, branch expansion, and management compensation. ●
Only in an extreme
situation, breach
of the third
threshold, would identify a bank as a likely
candidate for resolution through amalgamation, reconstruction or
winding up. |
GST inflows top
₹1 lakh cr for
second month in a row
Signs of recovery
In line with the recent
trend of recovery,
the revenues for November 2020 are 1.4% higher than
the GST revenues in the same month
last year.
●
Gross revenues from the Goods
and Services Tax (GST) crossed the ₹1
lakh crore mark for the second month in a row, with ₹1,04,963 crore
collected in November 2020.
●
November’s GST collections were
boosted by festive spending.
●
The pick-up in GST revenues over the last two months could reduce the shortfall in GST
compensation dues to States.
●
The average pace of growth
in GST collections in October-November 2020 stood at a moderately healthy 6%.
Cumulative loss
due to lockdown: Cumulatively, the GST revenues
from the first eight months of 2020-21 add up to ₹6,64,709 crore,
reflecting a 17.4% dip from the ₹8,05,164 crore collected in the same period of 2019-
20.
●
GST revenues had collapsed to just ₹32,172 crore in April this
year as economic activity was crippled following the national lockdown.
●
Fall in generation of e-way bills: The sharp moderation in growth in the generation of GST e-way bills in November 2020 relative to the previous
month, signals the impact of the change in working
days related to the shift in the festive calendar.
Lottery, gambling, betting taxable under GST Act: SC
The Supreme
Court held that lottery, gambling and betting are taxable under the Goods and
Services Tax (GST) Act.
●
The Court was responding to
arguments made by Skill Lotto Solutions and other lottery agents that the
lottery is not ‘goods’ and GST on it was illegal.
●
Skill Lotto Solutions Pvt. Ltd. filed the writ petition impugning
the definition of goods under Section 2(52) of the Central Goods and Services
Tax Act, 2017 (“CGST Act”) and
consequential notifications to the extent it levies tax on lotteries.
●
The Petitioner sought
declaration that the levy of tax on lottery is discriminatory and violative of Article 14, 19(1)(g), 301 and 304 of the
Constitution of India.
Takeaways from the judgment
●
The court held that lottery, betting and gambling
are “actionable claims”
and come within
the definition of ‘goods’ under Section 2(52) of the Central Goods and Services Tax Act, 2017.
●
It said the levy of GST on
lotteries does not amount to “hostile discrimination”.
●
But the court said the
Parliament had an absolute power to go for an “inclusive definition” of the
term ‘goods’ to include actionable claims like lottery, gambling and betting.
●
The power to make laws as conferred by Article 246A fully empowers the Parliament to make laws with
respect to goods and services tax and expansive definition of goods.
●
The court
accepted the government’s stand that the Parliament has the competence to levy GST on lotteries under Article 246A of the Constitution.
●
Besides, the court said Section
2(52) of the GST Act was in line with the Constitution Bench judgment of the
Supreme Court in the Sunrise
Associates case, which
had held that “the sale of a lottery
ticket amounts to the
transfer of an actionable claim”.
Investment Promotion Award
2020: United Nations Declares Invest India the
Winner
The United Nations (UNCTAD) has declared Invest India -
the National Investment Promotion Agency of India - as a winner of the 2020
United Nations Investment Promotion Award.
About the award:
●
The award recognizes and
celebrates the outstanding achievements and best practices of Investment Promotion Agencies (IPAs) across the globe.
●
The evaluation was based on
UNCTAD’s assessment of work undertaken by 180
IPAs.
●
The response of IPAs
to the pandemic became the basis for the evaluation of the 2020 United Nations
Investment Promotion Award.
ü The COVID-19 pandemic has led to numerous challenges for Investment
Promotion Agencies forcing them to shift focus from routine investment promotion
and facilitation towards crisis management.
Significance:
●
The award is a testament to the
vision of making India a preferred investment
destination.
●
It bears testimony to the focus
on Ease of Living, Ease of Doing Business and creating an Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
Investing in India’s youth
With the largest youth population in the world, India faces the
difficult task of educating every citizen to become a productive member of
society.
Background
●
Evidence shows that many people
develop 21st century skills on the job, or from courses that focus on practical
application of skills.
●
This indicates that vocational education can be a route for
many to gain specific skill sets and knowledge which they can directly
apply in their jobs.
●
Technical and Vocational
Education and Training (TVET).
ü ‘Technical and vocational education and training’
(TVET) is understood as comprising education,
training and skills development relating to a wide range of occupational
fields, production, services and livelihoods.
ü TVET, as part of lifelong learning, can take place at
secondary,post-secondary and tertiary levels and includes work-based learning
and continuing training
and professional development which may lead to qualifications.
ü TVET also includes a wide range of skills development opportunities
attuned to national and local
contexts.
ü Learning to learn,
the development of literacy and numeracy skills,
transversal skills and citizenship
skills are integral components of TVET.
Govt. initiatives
●
India’s Right to Education Act guarantees
free and compulsory education for the ages of 6 to 14 years, and is based on
books and written examinations.
●
The National Skill Development Policy was
launched in 2009 and revamped in 2015, recognising the challenge of skilling
with speed and high standards.
●
The Skill India Mission was launched
soon after, and Prime Minister
Narendra Modi announced
his vision for making India
the “skill capital” of the world.
●
The new National Education Policy (NEP) aims
to provide vocational education to 50% of all learners by 2025.
ü Schools are encouraged to provide students access to vocational
education from Grade 6 onwards and to offer courses that are aligned to the
local economies and can benefit local communities.
Challenges:
●
One of the biggest challenges
for expanding the reach of TVET-related courses has been the lack of aspiration and stigma attached to
jobs such as carpentry and tailoring.
Way forward:
●
UNESCO’s State of the Education Report for India 2020 focuses on vocational education and training and showcases the
growth of the skills development sector, along with emerging challenges.
●
Public information campaigns
involving youth role models, would go a long way in improving the image
of vocational education. At the same time, some common myths around TVET need
to be debunked.
●
It emphasizes the need for expanding evidence-based research as
one of its key recommendations.
●
High-quality research based on careful data-gathering and analytics can add value to all aspects of TVET planning and delivery but is
especially useful for creating evidence behind the value of vocational
education.
ü Considering that many employers are unable to find skilled
candidates for jobs, promoting skills development and hiring skilled workers
can make the economy stronger.
A massive expansion in vocational education will be possible only if
the existing skills development systems are leveraged effectively. Hence, for
the vision of the National Education Policy to be fulfilled, a robust
coordination mechanism for inter-ministerial cooperation will be necessary for bringing the skills development and vocational education
systems together.
N.K. Singh calls
for a fresh look at the Seventh Schedule
Fifteenth Finance Commission chairman N.K. Singh has called for a
fresh look at the Constitution’s Seventh Schedule, which forms the basis for
allocating subjects to the Centre and States.
●
He hinted at the need to fill
an ‘institutional vacuum’ created by the
abolition of the Planning Commission.
Key takeaways from the statement:
●
The symmetry in the working of the GST Council and the Finance
Commission deserves serious consideration.
ü The Finance Commissions look at projections of expenditure and revenue, but issues of GST rates exemptions, changes, and implementation of the indirect
taxes are entirely within the domain of the GST Council.
ü This leads to unsettled
questions on the ways to monitor, scrutinise and
optimise revenue outcomes.
●
With the abolition of the Planning Commission, many economists and policy
makers have argued about an institutional vacuum.
ü We need to give serious
consideration for a consultative forum for credible
policy dialogue between the Centre and the States.
●
Erosion of division
of power: The division
of functions enshrined
under Seventh Schedule
of Constitution got
increasingly eroded over a period of time, beginning with
ü the constitution of the Planning Commission in 1951 and later,
ü the shifting of the subjects like forest and education from the
state to the Concurrent List by the 42nd Amendment of the Constitution
●
Some examples in today’s context are the Mahatma Gandhi National
Rural Employment Guarantee Act of 2005 and the National Food Security Act 2013.
●
India needs a review of both the Seventh Schedule and Article 282 of
the Constitution so as to give more flexibility to
States in implementing centrally sponsored schemes, these issues needed urgent
consideration to reinforce trust in fiscal federalism.
ü The commission on
Centre-State Relations, headed by Justice M M Punchhi, in 2010 recommended that the Union should only transfer those
subjects into the Concurrent List, which are central to achieving demonstrable
national interest.
●
Rationalisation of the centrally sponsored schemes (CSS): India needs a far more credible policy for rationalisation of
Centrally Sponsored Schemes and Central outlays than have been possible so far.
ü The total public outlays on the CSS are close to Rs 6-7 lakh crore
per annum with the Centre’s share over Rs 3.5 lakh crore or 1.2% of current
GDP.
ü There are approximately 211 schemes/sub-schemes under the 29-umbrella core and core of the core
schemes.
●
Fiscal consolidation: There is a need
for continuity on aligning the fiscal consolidation road map of the Centre and
the states in a more harmonious symmetry.
ü A differentiated debt path of states which recognises the present constraints and issues of legacy
debt must be handled with sagacity and sensitivity.
ü
The Centre recently
allowed additional borrowing space of 2% of GDP for states this year (over and above
3% mandated under FRBM) based
on reforms in four areas — universalisation of one
nation-one ration card, ease of doing business, power distribution and urban
local body revenues.
ü A fiscal range than a
fiscal point based on expenditure outcomes may be
the need of the hour.
India
slips to rank 131 in global
Human Development Index
India has slipped to 131 among 189 countries in the Human
Development Index for 2019 compared to 130 the previous year, according to the
United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Report 2020.
●
However, the absolute value of the index has gone up for
India to 0.645 in 2019 (the year under consideration) compared to 0.642 the
year before, reflecting overall better performance.
●
Norway topped the index, followed by Ireland and Switzerland. Hong Kong and Iceland complete
the top five.
Key takeaways:
●
In all four HDI indicators, India’s
performance has either improved in 2019 compared
to 2018 or remained the same.
●
Life expectancy at birth has improved to
69.7 years compared to 69.4 years the year before.
●
GNI per capita at $6,681 in 2019 was
higher than $6,427 in 2018.
●
Expected years of schooling and mean year of schooling in
2019 remained the same as the previous
year at 12.2 and 6.5 respectively.
●
Planetary Pressure Adjusted HDI: When
the HDI is adjusted to include two more elements experimentally introduced by
the UNDP to account for planetary pressure (Planetary Pressure Adjusted HDI),
its ranking improves by eight positions.
ü The two new elements are
ü a country's material consumption and
ü
its carbon footprint.
ü India’s performance is much
better in these compared to most countries higher up on the HDI,
●
India’s HDI value for 2019 is 0.645, which puts the country in the medium
human development category, positioning it at 131 out of
189 countries and territories.
●
Trends in India's HDI rankings: Between
1990 and 2019, India’s HDI value increased from 0.429 to 0.645, an increase of 50.3%.
ü Between 1990 and 2019
■
India’s life expectancy at
birth increased by 11.8 years,
■
mean years of schooling
increased by 3.5 years, and
■
expected years of schooling
increased by 4.5 years.
■
India’s GNI per capita
increased by about 273.9% between 1990 and 2019.
Currency
manipulation: Why
India under USA’s
watchlist?
More on the news:
Recently, the United States has once again included
India in its monitoring list of countries with potentially questionable foreign
exchange policies and currency
manipulation.
●
This comes a year after India
was removed from the watchlist in the US Treasury Department’s foreign-
exchange report to the US Congress.
●
India has (for several years) maintained
a significant bilateral goods trade surplus (totalled $22 billion
in the first
four quarters through June 2020) with the US.
●
India sustained net purchases
of foreign exchange has pushed net purchases of foreign exchange to $64 billion
or 2.4% of GDP over the four quarters through June 2020.
Meaning of ‘currency manipulator’:
●
A label given by the US government: To
countries it feels are engaging in unfair
currency practices by deliberately devaluing their currency
against the dollar.
●
What it signifies: The country in question
is artificially lowering the
value of its currency to gain an unfair
advantage over others.
●
Impact: This would reduce the cost of exports from that country and artificially show
a reduction in trade deficits as a result.
●
Parameters used:
ü A significant bilateral trade surplus (at least $20 billion over a
12-month period) with the US.
ü
A material
current account surplus
equivalent to at least 2 percent of gross domestic
product (GDP) over a 12-month period.
ü Persistent, one-sided interventions are conducted repeatedly, in at
least six out of 12 months.
An economy
meeting two of the above three criteria in the Trade Facilitation and Trade
Enforcement Act of 2015 is placed on the Monitoring List.
●
Dent confidence of investors: The
designation of a country as a currency manipulator does not immediately attract
any penalties, but tends to dent the confidence about a country in the global
financial markets.
Monoculture: The issue raised amidst
ongoing farmer’s protests
More on the news:
With the ongoing protests by Punjab farmers, the issues of
monoculture in the state has been raised.
●
The gross cropped area was
estimated at 78.30 lakh hectares (2018-19)
in Punjab.
●
Out of this, 35.20 lh was sown
under wheat and another 31.03 lh under paddy, adding up to 84.6% of the total
area planted to all crops.
●
That ratio was just over 32% in
1960-61 and 47.4% in 1970-71.
Monoculture Farming:
●
About: Monoculture farming is a form of
agriculture that is based on growing only
one type of a crop at one time on a specific
field. In contrast, a polyculture system assumes that a field
is sown with two or more
crops at a time.
ü If a different
culture is planted
on a given field plot each year, the concept
of growing a single crop on one field at a time is still
referred to as monoculture.
ü The concept of monoculture does not only apply to crops, but to farm
animals as well.
Advantages |
Disadvantages |
Reducing the effects of
monoculture farming |
●
Increased productivity and efficiency: Monoculture planting maximizes
the efficient use of soil and local
climate conditions. ●
Open a room for new technologies: When
growing monoculture crops, agrarians tend to have some extra time and
financial resources to refer to new
technologies in agriculture. ●
Specialized production: Industrial
monoculture planting allows farmers to specialize in a particular crop, as
they usually deal with the same issues and problems that may arise in the process of growing. ●
Yield maximization: Some types of crops, such as cereals for example, are deemed to have better
yields when sown and grown as
monocultures, i.e. without other crops adjacent to them on a field. ●
Easier to manage: Cultivating
monoculture crops is easier as compared to polyculture ones. ●
Higher Revenues: By growing
monoculture plants, farmers usually benefit from higher profits. |
●
Pests management: Farmers who
stick to monoculture farming face more difficulties in terms of struggling with
pest infestations on their field. ●
Higher pesticides use: Monoculture crops are more likely
to be affected by blight or pests, as these threats can move faster through the area due to its
reduced biodiversity. ●
Soil degradation and fertility loss: Agricultural
monoculture upsets the natural balance of soils. ●
Higher use of fertilizers: As growing only
one kind of plant on the
same piece of farmland depletes and exhausts the soil by depriving it of biodiversity. ●
Higher water use: If there is only one type of crop on a given land
plot, the root systems of this species are not sufficient to maintain the soil structure around the plants. ●
Decrease in biodiversity: One of the main problems with monoculture farming is the elimination
of biological diversity. ●
Impact on pollinators: Monoculture
farming has also a negative effect
on such important participants of
the natural reproductive cycle as
bees and other pollinators. ●
Economic risks: When concentrated on growing monoculture crops
only, a farmer puts at stake all the potential harvest from the given land
plots and the reason for this is quite simple. ●
Environmental impacts of monoculture:
In most subsistence
farming practices, crops are grown and harvested to feed a family
or local community. |
·
Implementation of Crop
Rotation ●
Smart use of Fertilizers ●
Moderate herbicides and
pesticides use ●
More efficient water use ●
An example of departure from
monocultures in the European Union is
the “greening” initiative or “green payment”, which consists in
providing an annual subsidy to farmers who incorporate
planet-friendly approaches and methods of growing crops. |
Steps taken by the Punjab
government:
●
Enacting the Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act.
●
Breeding shorter-duration paddy varieties
that scientists at the Punjab Agriculture University (PAU), Ludhiana have developed.
●
Way forward:
ü A sensible strategy could be to limit Punjab's non-basmati paddy
area to ensure planting of only shorter-duration varieties.
ü Water savings can be induced through metering of electricity and
direct seeding of paddy.
Draft National Rail Plan
More on the news:
Indian Railways has come up with a Draft National Rail Plan, to
address the inadequacies of capacity constraints and improve its modal share in
the total freight ecosystem of the country.
●
The National Rail Plan will be
a common platform for all future infrastructural, business and financial
planning of the Railways.
●
This plan is being circulated among various Ministries for their views and Railways
aim to finalise the Final plan by January 2021.
Objectives of the Plan:
●
To create capacity ahead of
demand by 2030.
●
Net Zero Carbon emission by 2030, as
part of a national commitment to reduce Carbon emission and to sustain it.
●
Forecast growth of traffic in both freight and passenger year on year up to 2030 and on a decadal basis up
to 2050.
●
Formulate strategies based on both
operational capacities and commercial policy initiatives to increase modal
share of the Railways in freight to 45% by 2030.
●
Reduce transit time of freight substantially
by increasing average speed of freight trains from present 22Kmph to 50Kmph.
●
Reduce overall cost of Rail
transportation by nearly 30% and pass on the benefits to the customers.
●
Identify infrastructural bottlenecks that
would arise in future with growth in demand.
Vision 2024:
●
The Vision 2024 has
been launched (as part of the National Rail Plan), for accelerated
implementation of certain critical projects by 2024 such as
ü 100% electrification,
ü Multitracking of congested routes,
ü Upgradation of speed to 160 kmph on Delhi-Howrah and Delhi-Mumbai routes,
ü Upgradation of speed to 130kmph on all other Golden
Quadrilateral-Golden Diagonal (GQ/GD) routes and
ü
Elimination of all Level
Crossings on all GQ/GD routes.
Hence, the National Rail Plan envisages an initial surge in capital
investment right up to 2030. Post 2030, the revenue surplus generated would be
adequate to finance future capital investment and also take the burden of debt
service ratio of the capital already invested, without exchequer funding of
Rail projects.
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